Agnew's Mind He's got a long journey ahead of him.

The Truth is in the Numbers

    by wganter

I wanted my Roberto Clemente article to be the first Agnewsmind contribution I made but I am just too excited about Cliff Lee to consider anything else. Sorry Roberto, Phil’s trump you. On to the goods:

I will admit, I was caught up in it. Considering the Halladay trade rumors dominated at least a months worth of our Phillie’s season for 2009, anyone who says they always wanted Cliff Lee is a bold faced liar.

That being said, deep in all of our minds, did we really think the Phillies would get anyone? So when Cliff Lee was picked up in what has to be the most one-sided trade in many years, you had to be ecstatic. I was. I did feel a small hint of defeat since it wasn't Halladay, but then I decided to be a respectable fan and look at the stats. And I must say, it looked pretty stinking good. We got the reigning AL Cy Young winner and a right handed outfielder. I will get into their stats later but consider who we gave up:

Carlos Carrasco: 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA in AAA Lehigh

Jason Donald: .259 BA with 3 AAA teams and 1 Gulf league team and 6 errors in 2009

Jason Knapp: 2-7 with a 4.01 ERA in A ball

Lou Marson: .307 in AAA ball

Besides Lou Marson, who we must remember is still a minor leaguer, we gave them nothing. Not a thing. Jason Knapp, Jason Knap!!! He is playing single A baseball. Give me a break. I haven’t played ball in 5 years but deep down think that there is the possibility that I could squander around in single A baseball for a season or two and maybe if the moon was orbiting closer to earth I would not make a complete fool of myself. Who knows, Agnew could join me and with his broken bat home run skills and pull off a miracle. Dan McGarry could get called in for relief and possibly strike out a few, we all know McGarry had a cannon. Dan Kim could like white people again and play a game or three at first base. McShea could be the single A version of Utley for at least a season, if the stars aligned correctly. Ry and Jon could be the single A Upton brothers, with a little help and not too many broken supersitions. All I am trying to say is that single A ball, not to discount that it is still professional baseball, is a very, very, very long way from the Big Show. And forget the rest of those schmucks. There are two pitchers who have no chance of making this rotation for many years. There is an outfielder who, now with the addition of Francisco, would not even get a backup roster spot in countless years for this all All-Star outfield. Even if they were incredible players in minor league ball, batting 550 with 38 dingers, they don’t have a chance of making the roster for a long time, so we indeed gave up nothing we needed.

And now on to the gem that we acquired and how Lee is just as impressive as Halladay or anyone else in the league for that matter. I heard 610 all week, I listen religiously and really need to ween myself off it sometimes. I heard it in Dewitt’s voice, the let down and disappointment in no Halladay. As Dewitt said, “I was told I was getting Olive Garden. Then when the time came to eat, Gags and Jenny said we were getting Mack and Manco’s. Even though Manco’s is the best pie on earth, I had my mind set on OG.”

So the reigning AL Cy Young winner. To digress for a second. Are the Phillies the World Champions of Baseball? I think yes. Not because they have the best record this year, but because they won the World Series in 2008. I am not living in the past, I want to win it again, but we are the champs. So Cliff Lee, the Cy Young winner of the AL (a much more potent offensive league I might add) is now, in my mind, the best pitcher in the national league. Until the end of the season, when Lincecum wins it.

Take a look at the past 10 years of Cy Young winners in the AL:

1998    Roger Clemens             Toronto Blue Jays         20–6    0          2.65

1999    Pedro Martínez             Boston Red Sox           23–4    0          2.07

2000    Pedro Martínez             Boston Red Sox           18–6    0          1.74

2001    Roger Clemens             New York Yankees     20–3    0          3.51

2002    Barry Zito                     Oakland Athletics         23–5    0          2.75

2003    Roy Halladay                Toronto Blue Jays         22–7    0          3.25

2004    Johan Santana              Minnesota Twins          20–6    0          2.61

2005    Bartolo Colón               Los Angeles Angels      21–8    0          3.48

2006    Johan Santana              Minnesota Twins          19–6    0          2.77

2007    C.C. Sabathia               Cleveland Indians         19–7    0          3.21

2008    Cliff Lee                       Cleveland Indians         22–3    0          2.54

Take out the ridiculous years Pedro had in 1998 and 1999 and Cliff Lee has the lowest ERA. He also has the best record of 22-3, that is a win-loss percentage of .880. You have to go back to 1978 when Ron Guidry of the ‘Yanks went 25-3. Since the beginning of the Cy Young in 1956, only Ron Guidry has had a better record. No Cy Young winner in the NL has ever had a better win-loss percentage. Consider how impressive that is in the power house, home run happy, modern baseball era with the lively ball and that should be exciting for Phillies fans. But no, we say Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Of course he is not a reigning Cy Young winner, nor has he won a Cy Young since 2003. That was 6 years ago and he was a spry 28 years old then. Cliff Lee was 30 when he won, last year. Remember that people.

On to this year, forget that Halladay has gone 1-3 since coming back from his injury this year. Broken goods? Cliff Lee came from Cleveland with a 7-9 record and a 3.14 ERA.  Jason Verlander, who is on a much better Detroit team, a Cy Young candidate, and league leader in wins with 12, has a 3.16 ERA. Do not let the record fool you. Lee has gone 9 games this year in which he has given up 3 runs or less and gotten either a no decision or a loss, this includes an 8 inning shutout to the Boston Red Sox. Shutting out a team whose veins are literally exploding with the likes of HGH, steroids, and other illegal performance enhancing substances is impressive enough, but taking a no decision and still respecting your abysmal Cleveland team is downright honorable. Include two more games in which he gave up 4 runs for either a loss or a no decision and that is quite possibly 11 games in which the Phillies dominant offense would have given him the “W.” As they did last night with 5 runs in support! But what about the ERA at 3.14? Take away his first two starts that he blew up in and his ERA becomes 2.40, I credit the Fightins for that stat calculation. He is also in the offensively powered AL and looking at the league leaders, I only see 5 pitchers with an ERA below 3. Actually, only 5 pitchers have an ERA below 3.14. So Lee, the reigning CY Young winner was tied for 6^th in his league in ERA. His league that includes possibly 6 teams that could dominate the playoffs and take the World Series from the NL, who right now look to only have two contenders in the Phillies and the Dodgers. One of those contenders just got quite a bit better.

Oh and Ben Francisco ain’t too bad either.

For all of Phillies nation, after seeing last nights spectacular performance:

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090731&content_id=6175446&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

I hope we can now talk of how we have the best pitcher in baseball, and let us not forget the current World Series MVP in Cole Hamels. This is a special team right now. Let’s enjoy it.

Oh and just to get a jab in, take a look at what those lovely Met’s are doing since they can’t seem to win a game:

Other Mets Crap

Wow, it really couldn’t be any more perfect. You can’t make this stuff up.